Muslims are the fastest growing religious group in the world. Jews well below the pre-Holocaust numbers

Between 2010 and 2020, the global Jewish population grew by less than a million people – an increase of 6% – significantly slower than the growth rate of 12% of the total population in the world.

The Jewish growth rate reflects that of the Christian population that rose from 2.1 billion to 2.3 billion in the same period. In contrast, the Muslim population expanded much faster (around 21%) and grew from 1.7 billion to 2.0 billion and thus the fastest growing religious group in the world.

Around 46% or 6.78 million, 39% or 5.7 million of the Jewish population lived in Israel, in the USA and in other areas of the world, including 3.1% in France, 2.4% in Canada and 2% in Great Britain – with estimated population groups of 460,000, 350,000 and 300,000.

The PEW report emphasizes that the Global Jewish population in 2020, almost 80 years after the Holocaust in 2020, is still not due to the level of war before the Second World War, 14.78 million compared to an estimated 16.6 million in 1939.

According to Sergio Dellapergola, emeritus professor and former chairman of the Harman Institute of Contemporary Jude at Hebrew University, it will take another 10 to 20 years for the Jewish population to be completely recovered in front of the Holocaust.

“A historical moment will mark,” he told the Times of Israel about a video interview.

Dellapergola previously worked in the academic consulting committees for two large PEW studies on American Jews, which were published in 2013 and 2020. Although he did not directly contribute to the global religious landscape report, the authors found that they were based in detail on data that he had put together in the American Jew -Youth Years' book for the annual “worldwide Jewish population chapter”.

The PEW report analyzes data from 2010 to 2020, but Dellapergola has already published updated figures that cover until January 1, 2024.

“The general trends remained the same, although some numbers, especially for Israel, have increased,” he said. He explained that the Jewish population in Israel grows by around 100,000 every year.

Dellapergola has been pursuing the global Jewish population trends since the 1980s.

According to the latest estimates by the demograph, there were around 15.7 million Jewish people worldwide at the beginning of 2024.

Who is a Jew?

However, Dellapergola found that his estimate and Pews cannot be compared directly, since they rely on slightly different definitions of who is considered Jewish.

“If we deal with the question of how many Jews live in the world, the way we are a Jew is always crucial,” he said.

In his reports, Dellapergola offers four different definitions – and thus pay.

The Jewish core population, which will be estimated at 15.7 million in 2024, includes people who identify exclusively as Jewish, be it in religious, cultural or ethnic terms.

Further definitions are children of at least one Jewish parent (18.8 million in 2024) and people with a Jewish background or connections-imposed by non-Jewish household members-to-go.

After all, around 24.8 million were entitled to move to Israel on the law (all Jews, their children, grandchildren and the respective spouse).

“Pew's core mission is to study religious trends so that they mainly define the Jewish identity by a religious lens, except for people who identify with NO Religion as Jews,” said Dellapergola.

“Interestingly, you used a much closer definition in this report than in the previous studies on American Jews,” he added.

In fact, the PEW authors made it clear that this survey only included those who identified themselves as Jewish through religion. In contrast, the previous reports about American Jews counted people with a Jewish parent or those who identified themselves as Jewish for cultural, ethnic or other non -religious reasons.

For Israel, the PEW report was based on data from the Ministry of the Interior that defined Jews in accordance with the criteria of the chief rabbinat: people born by Jewish mothers or converts who were recognized by a rabbinical court.

As a result, the survey ruled out more than half a million inhabitants who live according to the law of returning in Israel, but are classified as “no religion”.

Majority v. minority

According to Dellapergola, understanding the demographic trends within the Jewish community requires the knowledge of the strong different realities that Jews in Israel are faced with the people living abroad.

“In Israel, Jews are the majority while they exist outside the country as a small minority,” he said. “This fundamental difference has profound psychological, political, financial and institutional implications – all influence demographic patterns.”

Israel also has a higher percentage of religious and ultra -orthodox persons who tend to have a higher birth rate and therefore faster growth.

“However, it is important to take into account that the general birth rate in Israel has been stable for around three children per woman for many years,” noted Dellapergola. “This is unique. If we take the 100 most developed countries in the world, not a single state reaches a similar birth rate.”

In view of the falling birth rates in large parts of the western world, the Global Jewish community joins a new demographic phase, according to the expert.

“For over a century, Jewish diaspora communities generally had lower birth rates than the broader societies in which they lived,” said Dellapergola. “Today the trend is shifting because birth rate has fallen so low in many countries that Jewish families actually have more children on average.”

This shift is particularly pronounced in communities with larger ultra -orthodox or religious population groups.

“For example, the Jewish community in the United Kingdom has grown for the first time in decades, largely driven by the Haredi population,” said the demograph.

What about assimilation?

Dellapergola found that the assimilation rates in Jews recently stabilized after a century.

“The assimilation has been increasing steadily for about 100 years,” he said. “In the United States and in many European countries, it reached 60%. Essentially, it cannot go higher.”

At the same time, he pointed out a growing trend of assimilated or partially assimilated Jews who are once again combined with their Jewish identity. “Much of this revival was driven by the external pressure,” he said. “Whether it is called anti-Semitism or anti-Zionism, the phenomenon has risen dramatically in the past 15 to 20 years.”

According to Dellapergola, surveys from several countries have been increasing an increase in anti -Semitic attitudes in recent years.

“People are increasingly perceiving hostility who need a need for solidarity and community, a search for friendly faces,” he said.

He added that during the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent conflict will probably influence this dynamic, but will take years to fully understand their effects on the assimilation trends in the diaspora communities.

Should I stay or should I go?

At the same time, Dellapergola emphasized that Israel experienced an immigration deficit between 2023 and 2024 for the first time in 40 years, with more people left the country than immigrating or returning there.

“It takes about 12 months to see if someone who has left the country has done this permanently,” said Dellapergola. “Around 80,000 people who had left Israel until 2023 had not returned until December 2024. In the same period, around 30,000 Israelis returned from abroad to the country, and another 30,000 have immigrated. Israel still leaves this with 20,000 fewer.

According to Dellapola, most trends in Aliyah (immigration) and Yeridah (emigration) are closely linked to economic factors.

“Investigation of unemployment rates and other economic indicators in Israel and abroad often offers a reliable forecast of migration patterns in a certain year,” he said.

“In this case, however, the trend began before October 7 at the time of the judicial revision, which was not an economic phenomenon,” added Dellapergola. He referred to the controversial attempt by the current government in spring 2023 to drastically change the balance of power between the judiciary and the executive – an effort that triggered mass protests in which hundreds of thousands of people were involved.

According to Dellapergola, the political development of Israel will continue to determine both the emigration rates and the decisions of Diaspora Jews who deal with anti -Semitism about whether Israel should be put to their home.

Within the next decade, however, the demograph will project that half of the world's Jewish population will live in Israel.

“Today around 45% of the Jews live in Israel, and this proportion increases by half a percentage point per year,” said Dellapergola. “The reaching of the 50% brand will be another historical milestone as well as when the Global Jewish population will outperform its numbers before Holocaust.”