In 2024, politics in India, its immediate neighborhood and many countries around the world took a surprising turn.
These developments have been unprecedented in some places, rapid or unexpected in others – and in many cases hold the potential to usher in dynamic shifts in discourses and narratives.
In India and elsewhere, relations between political parties and actors continued to deteriorate, divisions between the ruling and opposition parties deepened, and their mutual hostility intensified.
The scale of Donald Trump's victory in the United States and Keir Starmer's landslide in the United Kingdom was astonishing, and the speed with which longstanding regimes such as those of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh collapsed stunned the world.
Elsewhere in India's neighborhood, Anura Kumara Dissanayake's victory in Sri Lanka was not foreseen by many. And Pakistan sank deeper and deeper into political chaos.
In Europe, political upheaval occurred in France and Germany, with governments losing the confidence of parliament, pointing to uncertainty and possible crises in the new year.
In India, a third term was on the cards for the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. For many, the Lok Sabha election was more of a formality. The BJP expressed optimism after the inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. The stock market was doing well. It seemed like a done deal.
But the result stunned the BJP and forced Modi to form a government with ideologically different regional parties for the first time in his political career. The opposition rejoiced and many began to believe that the BJP was gradually losing its power.
And then came another surprise. In the assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra, the BJP made a spectacular recovery, regaining its electoral power and putting renewed pressure on the opposition, particularly the Congress. The Congress, inexplicably elated after its third consecutive defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, is now facing increasing challenges from its allies in India.
This year also saw the return of the democratic electoral process to Jammu and Kashmir. Despite the presence of candidates supported by Engineer Rashid's Awami Ittehad Party and Jamaat-e-Islami, the people retained their faith in the mainstream parties.
In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik and the BJD left power after a record 24 years in power, which in itself is a minor political earthquake.
2024 was an election year. The year 2025 offers a look beyond the elections. This will perhaps be a year where governance will take center stage. There are pressing challenges on the economic front as growth slowed more than expected in the second quarter.
Here's a look at five broad themes, trends and developments that could shape political discourse in India in 2025 and beyond.
1. Increasing political bitterness
A message of the 2024 Lok Sabha election was the people's preference for continuity with moderation. But both the BJP and the Congress seem to have consciously chosen to misinterpret the mandate. Their political positions have hardened and they have brought their bitter rivalry into everyday politics, parliament and beyond. At the end of the year, relations between the ruling party and the opposition reached their lowest point during the winter session of Parliament.
Through their words and actions, both sides have left little room for the democratic premise of conversation or engagement – whether within Parliament or outside. For the first time in the history of the Indian Republic, opposition parties made an attempt, albeit a failed one, to remove the Vice President from office. While the target was Jagdeep Dhankhar, the move was clearly aimed at the government.
The ugly clashes in Parliament – and the filing of an FIR against opposition leader Rahul Gandhi – will only increase the hostility. For things to return to some semblance of normality, both sides must find a middle ground for engagement and conversation, even as they pursue their respective political and ideological goals.
2. Mandir Masjid, continued
The Supreme Court has temporarily halted the flood of civil lawsuits challenging the ownership and title of Muslim places of worship allegedly built on the ruins of existing Hindu temples. And RSS Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat said that after the construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya, it was not acceptable to stir up similar issues in new places.
However, the politics surrounding mandir and masjid are unlikely to stop in 2025. At least 18 petitions relating to ten mosques/shrines are currently pending in court. The bulk of the new cases asserting Hindu rights at Muslim sites have been filed in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP suffered heavy losses at the hands of the SP and Congress in the Lok Sabha election. The assembly elections are more than two years away, but the political landscape in Uttar Pradesh has already started heating up.
3. Two choices, three brands
The major general elections in 2025 will be a test for three major political brands – Nitish Kumar, Arvind Kejriwal and Narendra Modi.
For more than two decades, Nitish has turned political and electoral setbacks into opportunities and always managed to stay afloat in the end. He was also accused of repeatedly favoring political expediency over ideology.
The Bihar assembly elections, scheduled for October-November 2025, will be a big test for the Nitish brand, whose political obituary has been written more than once. The election will also test the political mettle of Tejashwi Yadav, who is still waiting to become the chief minister of Bihar.
Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party, in power in Delhi since 2013, is under pressure like never before. Will Kejriwal, who was jailed on corruption charges and resigned as chief minister after being released on bail, succeed in helping the AAP win a third consecutive term?
More than a decade ago, AAP became India's most successful political startup – today, both Kejriwal's image and his brand of politics are at stake.
The Prime Minister's brand value will also be tested in both Bihar and Delhi. The BJP has been in the political wilderness in Delhi for more than two-and-a-half decades, despite winning all seven Lok Sabha seats three times since 2014.
4. Controversial legislation
At least two controversial and polarizing bills will be passed by Parliament in 2025 – the Constitutional Amendment Bill to synchronize Lok Sabha and Assembly elections and the Wakf Land Regulation Bill.
The 'One Nation, One Election' bills, now referred to a joint committee of Parliament, will test the BJP's ability to walk down the aisle. To pass the bill amending the Constitution, a special majority is required – more than 50% of the total membership of the House of Representatives and two-thirds of the members present and voting. The BJP does not have such a majority in both houses.
Over the last decade, the BJP has managed to push through controversial legislation, including the bill to bifurcate Jammu and Kashmir and downgrade the (former) state into two union territories. The dynamic is different now. Almost the entire opposition is united against the “One Nation, One Election” proposal. And the Wakf Bill will test the BJP's ability to negotiate with allies like TDP and JD(U), which have a sizeable Muslim support base.
5. Caste, Census, UCC
In a year when the central government plans to begin the delayed decadal census, the rhetoric on caste will only get shriller. The big question is whether the government will include caste in the census – a political minefield that the BJP has not yet ventured into.
The Congress believes that caste and social justice can counter the BJP's Hindutva push. And for the same reason, the BJP has issued political slogans like “Batenge toh katenge” and “Ek hain to safe hain”. The Prime Minister has described the poor, youth, women and farmers as the “major castes”. The rhetoric in Parliament about BR Ambedkar's legacy signals that the gloves are well and truly off.
In his Independence Day address, the Prime Minister stressed the need to move to a “Secular Civil Code” in place of the existing “Municipal Civil Code” and he returned to the issue while responding to the debate on 75 years of the Constitution in the Lok Sabha.
Home Minister Amit Shah has said that the BJP governments will introduce a common civil code in all states like Uttarakhand. The UCC of Uttarakhand will come into force in January 2025. The BJP has chief ministers in 14 states, including states in the northeast. Efforts to advance the UCC border could open up new rifts in the polity.
Manoj CG is the Politburo Head of The Indian Express
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