China's Middle East strategy requires careful reassessment and strategic adjustment of its relationships with key countries in the region, especially given the evolving regional landscape.
Recent changes in power dynamics in the Middle East, particularly after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, have highlighted a decline in Russian and Chinese influence, with the US becoming more important.
This shift is evident at global, regional and national levels and has significant implications for China's Middle East strategy. The balance of power between the US, China and Russia has shifted, with Washington increasing its military presence and cooperation with Israel, while China's influence – despite its economic engagement – faces challenges due to geopolitical uncertainties and rivalry with the US.
The core conflict between Iran and Israel has evolved, with Tehran losing regional influence as Israel's military power increases. Turkey has now emerged as a dominant player, expanding its influence at Iran's expense. These new geopolitical complexities and increasing US-China rivalry pose significant hurdles to China's ability to exert greater influence in the Middle East.
Over the past two decades, China has rapidly emerged as an economic, political and security player in the Middle East. As the largest buyer of Middle East oil, China's trade with the region has more than tripled during this period, reflecting deepening economic, security and diplomatic ties.
In 2023, about 36% of China's crude oil imports came from the Middle East, making several Middle Eastern countries among China's largest energy suppliers. China's dependence on hydrocarbons from the Middle East has two main implications: first, it must ensure stable energy production in the region and second, it must ensure the safe transport of energy from the region to China. These priorities mean that any conflict that disrupts oil production or transportation in the Middle East poses a direct threat to China's national interests.
Furthermore, China's economic involvement in the Middle East has expanded significantly beyond the energy sector. By 2023, trade between China and the region reached nearly $444 billion, underscoring the growing importance of the Middle East as a key market for Chinese goods and services.
Beyond traditional trade, China has increased its commitment to infrastructure development, renewable and clean energy projects, the digital economy and artificial intelligence across the region. This diversification is in line with China's broader strategic plans such as the Belt and Road Initiative, which complements local development plans such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030. This alignment underscores China's intention to strengthen economic ties and promote deeper regional partnerships.
Challenges for China's Middle East strategy
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has now lasted over a year, poses a significant challenge to China's traditional approach of balance and neutrality in regional diplomacy. By 2023, China successfully maintained relations with all major players, including Saudi Arabia and Iran – as well as the Arab world and Israel – largely due to its relatively distant stance and lack of deep involvement in regional conflicts.
Nevertheless, the Israel-Hamas war has exposed the limits of this approach and forced China to rethink its Middle East strategy. The changing and uncertain regional power dynamics underscore the need for China to adjust its policies and strategically adjust its position in the region.
Although the Israel-Hamas war temporarily disrupted the reconciliation process between Israel and Arab countries, normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains likely. However, this development could challenge China's strategy in the Middle East.
A U.S.-Saudi security pact, a key prerequisite for Israel-Saudi normalization, would undermine China's efforts to promote a new regional security architecture with less U.S. influence. In addition, such an agreement may contain clauses that limit security and technological cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, complicating China's broader ambitions in the region.
In addition, China is likely to play a strategic role in supporting Iran's efforts to regain its strength and prestige in the region, especially after Israel's actions have weakened Iran's proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah. China believes a balanced regional security architecture is essential, with Iran serving as a key pillar and partner in countering US dominance in the Middle East.
To this end, China could prioritize strengthening Tehran's position by increasing imports of its crude oil, investing in Iranian infrastructure, and supporting its regional policies. However, due to the potential impact of US sanctions, such support could be discreet and potentially take the form of illicit trade, development assistance or diplomatic support.
The Israel-Hamas war has also significantly strained China's relationship with Israel. Its refusal to classify Hamas as a terrorist organization and its harsh criticism of Israel, particularly over the “humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza, have highlighted rising tensions.
China's pro-Palestinian stance is consistent with its broader anti-American position and views Israel as Washington's closest ally in the region. This dynamic influenced China's approach to the Gaza crisis, reflecting its overarching global approach to countering U.S. influence rather than a change in its traditional strategy.
Without Israel's close ties with the United States, China's response to the conflict may have been more neutral, in line with its historic efforts to balance regional relations.
The challenge for China lies in how it will shape its relations with Israel in the future. The trajectory of Sino-Israeli relations will be crucial in shaping China's Middle East strategy. Although China is not in a fundamental national conflict of interest with Israel, the deterioration in their relations is largely due to the war between Israel and Hamas rather than a direct clash between the two nations.
Given China's balanced and neutral diplomatic tradition, it is likely to seek to restore its relations with Israel through various engagements, particularly in trade and commerce. However, China's pro-Palestinian stance has disillusioned many Israelis who once viewed their relationship with China more positively.
Israel had hoped that China would take a more understanding stance toward its position, but China's criticism and lack of support have fostered feelings of betrayal and resentment. Convincing the Israeli public that China remains neutral and trustworthy will be a major challenge.
China's vision for security in the Middle East
China's Middle East strategy aims to challenge Washington's dominance by promoting a new regional security framework in which the country can play a more influential role given its growing economic power and political influence.
Chinese President Xi Jinping introduced the concept of building a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security architecture in the Middle East during the 8th China-Arab Cooperation Forum in 2018. In 2022, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi further emphasized the need for a “new security architecture” for peace and stability in Asia.
Nevertheless, China's limited influence on the ongoing conflict has highlighted its weaknesses as a regional security actor. By refraining from condemning Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah's attacks, and Iran's aggressive actions, China compromised its neutrality and lost its credibility as a potential peace broker.
China needs to deepen its relations and expand its regional influence to strengthen its position. Post-conflict reconstruction efforts in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and other war-torn areas represent a significant opportunity for China to leverage its expertise and financial resources in infrastructure development.
As the regional landscape continues to evolve, China's relations with key countries are likely to undergo a period of adjustment. This is particularly true in Israel, where relations have been most strained due to the war.
China will likely seek to deepen its ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia, potentially helping to rebuild Tehran's capabilities and improve its regional image. In addition, China is expected to continue to participate in peace, mediation and reconstruction efforts in war-torn areas.
While the Middle East is of significant geopolitical importance to China, its approach is characterized by cautious engagement, limited security engagement, reliance on multilateralism and an emphasis on economic cooperation. Consequently, despite its desire to increase its influence, China seeks not to become overly active in regional affairs or to dominate the regional order.
As a result, China's Middle East strategy is likely to enter a period of retrenchment and contraction, requiring a new development path that includes improving relations with key countries and reassessing its stance toward Israel. This adjustment could significantly alter China's Middle East strategy if it gains traction.
The author is a senior lecturer in the Department of Politics and Governance and the Department of Multidisciplinary Studies in Social Sciences at Ashkelon Academic College and a research fellow at the Institute of Asian Studies, University of Haifa, specializing in Chinese foreign and strategic relations. He can be reached at motih1308@gmail.com.