WThe global maritime trade, which is growing by around 50% by the middle of the century, we have analyzed the prospects for global marine fuel in the context of the obligations of the international maritime organization (IMO) to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission emissions from NET zero by 2050. In April in the April committee for the Marine shipping (MEPC).
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Marine LNG to dominate growth in the coming years
The total turnover of the global marine fuel is expected to grow by now and in 2030 by 2%, which is significantly lagging behind the growth of international maritime trade due to efficiency gains. The Asian -Pacific space accounts for around half of all global marine bunkers, which will be maintained at this level by 2030.
The global market for marine fuel is expected to decrease in the early 2030s, since the improvement in fuel efficiency continues to undermine demand. International trade in LNG is expected to grow much faster, although gas carriers make up lower commercial growth compared to the container and dry mass segments.
Global Oil Marine Bunker is expected to reach its peak with almost 5.3 million barrels per day by mid -2020 (B/D). Marine Liquified natural gas (LNG) will be the main growth source in the next few years and will be displaced over 0.4 million b/d oil by 2030.
The growth of the marine LNG is slowed down after 2040, since synthetic fuels or e-fuel pollute around 1.0 million b/d by 2050 and are supported by increasingly stricter carbon regulations and the increasing availability of green hydrogen.
IMO Net Zero Framework to increase the costs for fossil marine fuels
The IMO Net-Zero-Framework agreed by MEPC 83 will cover the emissions of all ships over 5,000 gross tonnage that are internationally active. The pricing system of the THG emissions is based on the blessing-power-hugging fuel intensity (GFI) of a ship with a 2-stage mechanism that punishes the upper goals of emissions. Fossil fuels are punished, but the lower emissions of the LNG vessels are strongly advantageous compared to VLSFO. The penalties will impose a cost increase for VLSFO ships by 90% by 2035 and an increase of 4 by 40% for LNG-filled ships.
Our internal refinery supply model (RSM) shows that rising IMO taxes would be removed from the global refinery transmissions from established export traffic locations. Latin America is the most important winner, with the Middle East being the most important loser in the East when assessing the regional raw roofs.
Part of the income is used in the IMO-Net-Zero-Fund for the development of low-carbon technologies and reward the use of vessels with low and zero carbon contesting. The other part is used to contribute to the “fair and fair transition” (JET) for national energy transition programs and climate protection.
Green liquid fuels to gain traction in the middle of the century
From the new production of low and zero carbon -marine -naval fabrics, green methanol in relation to availability, handling and engine technology for marine applications is the most commercially progressive.
It is expected that the penetration of e-fuel in Europe is highest, which is due to the considerable regulatory support by the Maritime EU regulation and the EU-EU-EU-EU-EUS. By 2050, the price for green ammonia for all trips that can start or abandoned a port in the European Economic Area (EEA) can displace (VLSFO) very low. On the other hand, it is likely that ammonia and other low-carbon fuels still have a challenge for ammonia and other carbon-poor fuels within the scope of the current IMO price mechanism.
Source: Wood Mackenzie