Heavy room weather notifications of the MET Office for Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) show that the records will break in 2025.
According to its website, the MET Office Space Weather Operations Center (Moswoc) is “one of a handful of 24/7 world room weather centers around the world” and was set up in October 2014 after the 2011 edition of the National Risk Register Solar Storms was a threat to Great Britain.
According to Moswoc, it “provides the most important information to build up the resilience of the British infrastructure and the industry in view of space weathering events, which supports the continued economic growth”.
Threat from extreme space weather with CNI
According to the Met Office Met Office, the extreme space weather can “have potentially significant effects on the critical national infrastructure of Britain”.
The space weather is a normal event because the sun is in “constant flow”, but increased solar activity is now becoming more visible than in the past decades and centuries due to the increased trust that we have in technology and satellites such as the global navigation satellite system (GNSS), such as the global position system of the US military (GPS).
“Solar torches can lead to the fact that high frequency radio and GNSS are carried out irregularly. Extreme CMES (coronal masses) can put electricity grids in danger. Therefore, the prediction of the space weather for electricity companies, satellite operators and the aviation industry is of crucial importance,” says Moswoc.
4,000 notifications that have been sent to CNI Mangers since 2014
NCE Previously, Moswoc reported almost 4,000 heavy space weather notifications to CNI managers in the first 10 years after his facility in 2014.
It can now be reported NCE Safe data from Moswoc on the law on the freedom of information.
The notifications are approximately to an expansion of the severity and are classified as “watches”, “warnings” and “warnings”, with warnings being the most urgent and most important.
Watches are long flow reports for potential increases in geomagnetic activity, warnings are issued if “certain conditions are expected for a certain period of time” and warnings are issued “when an event threshold has been crossed,” said the MET Office.
In 2017, most of the warnings and warnings were, while in 2025 most watches saw, even though he was only seven months a year.
Overall, the most active year in all notification classes in all notification classes with 631 notifications.
In the case of 420 notifications, however, a record year for Moswoc seems to be severe space weathering.
In 2025, 328 warnings were issued, 86 warnings and 6 watches.
Space Weather expert confirms that 2025 is the most active year in recording
The UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster reductions visited Professor Ewan Haggarty, told NCE that the Moswoc notifications match the expectations.
“2025 will certainly be a year with a record number of warnings, watches and warnings of the Moswoc,” he confirmed. “There are two reasons for this.”
The first, he said, was that “the Moswoc in 2014 was set up by Cycle 24 during the last solar maximum. Cycle 25 is considered in December 2019 and was the one -year cycle that is very regular that the highlight of the cycle was now, but it was no longer” mentioned “.
The second reason is that “the Peak of Cycle 24, which was determined by the number of sunspots, has already been conveniently handed over in the current cycle 25, but as an index and scale for the observed activity, the cumulative number of X-Flares, for example, was still higher,” said Haggarty.
According to the European Space Agency: “A solar flare is an enormous explosion to Thessun, which occurs when energy is stored in” twisted “magnetic fields (normally via sun spots) is suddenly released.
“In a few minutes you heat material to many millions of degrees and create a radiation outbreak to the electromagnetic spectrum, from radio waves to X -rays and gamma rays.
“X-class torches are large. They are important events that can trigger radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms in the upper atmosphere all over the world.”
How notifications match the expected activity in the 11th year sun cycle
Haggarty confirmed that the number and type of notifications of Moswoc were issued in view of the data of the 11-year sun cycle with what he was expecting.
“It can be said that the incidence of Moswoc notifications matches the observed solar activity,” he said.
“The threshold values at which the warnings, watches and warnings are issued by Moswoc were carefully defined, and I am aware that in consultation with the users of the space weather forecast, they were selected to provide” implementable information “.”
Available information relates to the type of information that CNI managers need to make decisions about their operations based on the threat level through severe space weather.
“In cooperation with the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), with which the space weather scales are aligned, efforts are invested in order to make less” science “, said Haggarty.
He added that the collaboration between the British Space Weather Forecast and the NOAA aims to present notifications that are “more effective discriminatory for effects on earth and near-in-one-the-spacer activities”.
Haggarty said it was not yet clear whether 2026 will have a reduction in space weather activity.
“Since it is not yet clear that the solar maximum of cycle 25 has been reached, it is not possible to say that the overall activity is reduced in 2026,” he said.
“Observations of Flare incidence from previous cycles indicate that these events can definitely be continued at an increased level.”
CNI managers did not yet show the necessary “depth of consciousness” of space weather
CNI managers have not yet shown that, according to Haggarty, they have the necessary “depth of consciousness” that is necessary to properly alleviate the risks equipped by heavy space weather.
“There is an increased awareness of the existence of a room weather threat to the British CNI,” he said.
“However, there were” almost mistakes “, in which a significant interruption of space weather could have occurred instead of manifesting problems in which the space weather” was the nearest crocodile for the canoe “.
“As such, the depth of this” consciousness “and the ability to make effective reduction in the theater of actual practice did not demonstrate.”
He added that “simulation and table desk are extremely difficult to do, and there is a possibility that many structural and practical” unknown unknown “remain undetected until” the real thing “is experienced.
Analysis of Moswoc notifications that were determined by academic echo -echo notifications
Professor for Lancaster University Professor of Space Physics, Jim Wild, confirmed the view that Moswoc's warnings correlate with the expected solar activity.
“I am not surprised that the number of warnings about solar maximum deals,” he said.
Notifications that were published between October 2014 and December 2024
| Year | Warnings | Warnings | Watch |
| 2014 | 66 | 17 | 0 |
| 2015 | 410 | 125 | 4 |
| 2016 | 411 | 149 | 1 |
| 2017 | 414 | 215 | 2 |
| 2018 | 250 | 104 | 1 |
| 2019 | 185 | 98 | 0 |
| 2020 | 101 | 50 | 0 |
| 2021 | 146 | 65 | 5 |
| 2022 | 283 | 118 | 2 |
| 2023 | 372 | 102 | 9 |
| 2024 | 413 | 149 | 27 |
| In total: | 3051 | 1192 | 27 |
| total | 4294 |
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