The Northern Lights fill the sky with green bands of electrically charged particles over the barn and pastures at Greaney's Turkey Farm in Mercer, Maine, on May 11, 2024. (Photo by Michael Seamans/Getty Images)
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According to a forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), the Northern Lights could be visible on camera – and possibly with the naked eye – in 12 northern U.S. states and Canada once darkness falls on Tuesday, October 28. The forecast includes a geomagnetic storm that could show auroras.
The forecast assumes that a coronal mass ejection – a cloud of highly charged particles leaving the Sun and taking a few days to reach Earth – is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field, followed by a fast-moving solar wind.
Northern Lights Forecast: What to Expect
NOAA forecasters say the combined impacts will likely be a G1 or G2 geomagnetic storm – and auroras in the northern US states, Canada and northern Europe.
“G1 (Marginal) conditions with a chance of G2 (Moderate) values are likely on October 28 and 29 due to the expected onset of coronal hole influence with positive polarity,” the forecast said. A coronal hole with positive polarity occurs when the magnetic field lines point away from the Sun, i.e. escape into space, sometimes towards the Earth.
Northern lights forecast: where and when
The latest aurora sightlines from NOAA suggest auroral displays are possible across northern U.S. states and Canada, with 12 U.S. states having a chance after dark on Tuesday, October 28. Intensity levels could reach Kp 5 – an active level of space weather – as soon as darkness falls in North America and last throughout the night.
U.S. states where auroras may be seen include Alaska and (northern parts of) Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York and Maine.
A dark northern sky with no urban light pollution probably offers the best views. Useful ways to locate a dark place include the Dark Sky Place Finder and a light pollution map.
On the night of September 30 to October 1, 2025, intense Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) were observed over Kp5 in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough of Alaska, around Chickaloon and Bonnie Lake. (Photo by Hasan Akbas/Anadolu via Getty Images)
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What causes the Northern Lights?
The solar wind causes the Northern Lights – streams of charged particles that emanate from the Sun and interact with the Earth's magnetic field. While most are deflected, some particles spin toward the poles along magnetic field lines and collide with oxygen and nitrogen atoms high in the atmosphere. These collisions excite the gases, causing them to release energy in the form of shimmering light.
Northern Lights Forecast: Latest Updates
All predictions for the Northern Lights should be viewed with caution. To check visibility in real time, use NOAA's 30-minute aurora forecast or download apps like Aurora Now, My Aurora Forecast or Glendale Aurora for up-to-date alerts and live solar wind data.
Aurora hunters often use the Kp index to predict the intensity of a geomagnetic storm, but for aurora imaging, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is more important (you can find it in some of the apps above and on SpaceWeatherLive.com).
Bz determines how easily solar energy enters the Earth's magnetosphere. When Bz points north, the earth's field resists; As Bz swings south, the two fields combine, allowing the influx of plasma. A sustained Bz of −5 nT or more to the south usually signals an impending auroral phenomenon.
Northern Lights: Why You Should Travel for the Best Displays
To almost guarantee that you will see the northern lights at any point in the solar cycle, aim for the aurora oval, which covers latitudes between 60 and 75 degrees. The oval lies over Alaska, northern Canada, northern Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland. At these latitudes, the northern lights are visible several times a week from September to March. Stay at least three nights to improve your chances of clear skies and check local weather forecasts before heading out.
I wish you clear skies and big eyes.